Think of how crazy our world is today…
Political turmoil has never been greater and it’s impossible not to feel disenfranchised by both political Parties. The entire government apparatus – FBI, CIA, IRS, DOJ, the court system and Federal Reserve, Cabinet Members for any administration and every new Congress – have proven to be nothing but corrupt and against the cause of Liberty. Add to those the closely connected powerbrokers – the mass media, big business and special interests, labor unions, and hostile sovereign nations – who are just as self-serving and against every facet of Americanism and the interests of We the People. Independent investors must appreciate the stock market is just as unreliable as the mass media, because contrary to its surging indication, We the People are losing wealth and value in rapid abundance.
The reason for our failing effort in the cause of continued prosperity is because We the population have never been more divided.—Half of the country feels as if the election was stolen from Trump (and who could blame them), while the other half doesn’t care if it was (what a shame so many are so willing to turn a blinds-eye to corruption should it suit their political whim). Corruption is incredibly divisive, and should never be tolerated.
It’s as if Americans don’t appreciate the wisdom of long-held clichés. Make no mistake, freedom falls most easily in a divided, fearful nation. And it is because of our debilitating division that Liberty is in swift decline, and because of it, the American market is teetering on the brink of another crisis that is shaping up to be ten-times scarier than anything Covid-19 could fictionally inflict.
Yet the Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently priced at another all-time high (30,000 points) in spite of everything that includes an underlying economy forced into shambles by an iron fist called gubernatorial overreach, in what can only be honestly seen as a direct assault on the free market system by tyrannical government with deep roots to global communism.
It has never been clearer that the global elites have purchased much of American government on both sides of the aisle and are using it to force feed our Republic a vaccine against freedom using Covid-19 as the ruse.
This is the fight of our time.
The very sad state America finds herself in right now is not good for long-term wealth creation regardless of what the stock market is indicating. Since Trump won the 2016 election stocks have enjoyed an explosive rise, albeit volatile. During his time “the market” averaged a respectable 17.5% gain per year, and my 15-51i strength indicator doubled in the 4 years, averaging 26.5% per annum. From those spectacular performances one would think the economy was in a full-fledged economic boom during the Trump era that continues to this day. But nothing could be further from reality.
Instead the market economy, which was growing modestly at 2.5% per year before Covid-19 swept into town, is actually 4% smaller today than it was in 2019.—In other words, the economy is in recession and stocks have never been higher. See below.
I have been known to put forth as a general rule there is never a good reason for long-term investors to be all-in, or all-out, of the stock market. And while that is good advice – it may not always be the best choice.
Who could blame anyone for cashing-out of the stock market right now?
The same goes for the bond market.
It is impossible to trust either market, the underlying economy, or the government managing that economy. Think about it…
First they shut down the economy and force millions onto the unemployment rolls while at the same time stripping every American from their right to move freely, spend as individually deemed appropriate, and to earn an honest day’s pay. In one swift move all rights of a free nation were gone in an instant.
Then they printed ungodly amounts of new money and debt (bad for the value of money and the nation) and threw it around in an effort to compensate and placate the population for their major loss in wealth and freedom. The money, some $4 trillion worth, was unable to plug a $1 trillion hole in the economy – thanks to waste and corruption on a massive and global scale.
And now to top it all off they want a greater percentage of your wealth and earnings via higher taxes.
Government did all of this, mind you, “to protect us” from something they were entirely incapable of protecting us against. Flu viruses are impossible to contain, history has proven. But who reads that anymore?
Government officials and the mass media at every level of society have stoked so much fear into Americans that they don’t know if they are coming or going, if they should be happy or mad, or whether they should rat their neighbor out or mind their own business. We have no respect for each other anymore, and look at those who do not conform by wearing masks as cold-hearted criminals even though they have done nothing wrong or illegal, and simply made a personal choice that was in their best interests, physically and/or mentally.
Consistent and long-term use of masks is not healthy for anyone and provides little to no actual safeguard, as history and science have proven for more than a hundred years. And the mental effects of prolonged use can be much worse than the physical effects. Only a communist could deny.
Since when has America become so universally against being free to choose?
And since when do Americans discourage tolerance for opposing views in such grand scale, and encourage acting with purposeful prejudice to the same degree?
At some point Americans must unite and start fighting to regain their lost individual rights, wages, and enterprise value, or risk losing them forever.
And while America is drowning in this awful version of Americanism that we are unfortunately teaching the next generation, the government is wasting trillions of dollars of our money throughout the world for no good reason or cause, racking-up nearly $30 trillion of national debt that is sure to bankrupt our grandchildren, while governors choke the life out of small businesses by imposing significant operating disadvantages on them versus their big business counterparts, who represent the donor class of government. This causes a massive transfer in wealth from the middle class to the global elites that run both big business and big government alike.
That is your government working for you.
In times of economic expansions yields move higher and gold drops. The chart for those two asset classes are more in line with what investors would expect to see during the economic times that have played out during the Trump era. See below.
The green line, yields, jumped on Trump’s victory primarily due to him campaigning on a steeply lower tax policy, and because the Federal Reserve had initiated an effort to unwind crisis measures implemented during the 2008 financial crisis, called quantitative easing (QE). But new Fed chairman Jerome Powell quickly got cold feet and reversed course in November 2018 and has been printing new money ever since, forcing the 10-year yield down to one-half-point at its low in March. Today it’s just shy of 1% for 10-year money.—Low isn’t word enough – an indication of monetary and economic weakness not seen through the stock market prism.
Gold is up 42% during the Trump stock market but all of it has come in the last two years, adding 46% in the last half of his term. Gold rises in a time of monetary weakness – which traditionally never happens during economic expansions. Expansions are normally times of higher interest rates (yields) and stronger money. More expensive money (higher yields) tempers spending and therefore inflation, and causes gold to fall.
Cheaper money with low yields, like in today’s world, encourages debt and deficit spending that can cause inflation, which makes gold rise in value. Of course, the low yields of today are directed by the Federal Reserve and are used to make government spending and the debt it creates cheap to service and easy to obtain. And that’s the real problem with today’s market operation, and the major threat to the cause of Liberty and free markets.
Masks, lockdowns, partisan politics, and election system controversies are smokescreen diversions that disguise the real debauchery now being inflicted on our system and way of life. The Federal Reserve is facilitating the takeover of the American Free-Market by tyrannical government and corrupt governors with damaging monetary policies (like QE) that no one is talking about because of the façade surrounding a virus that has proven to be nowhere near as spectacular as its advertisements.
Freedom and free-markets are losing the war to control their own destiny and operate as free-will dictates. So please tell me how that’s good for stocks and somehow validates a Dow 30,000 valuation?
You can have it. I’m out.
Live free or die broke.
Stay tuned…
Hey Buddy
Happy New Year. First time I saw your blog. Love it! Put me in the loop on these
Hi Mike — thanks for the feedback! You have been added to my email list. Feel free to explore my library of blogs here: https://loseyourbroker.com/blog/
Cheers!
Hi Dan, your article is spot on like usual. So, so sad that our grandchildren will pay the ultimate price……
Happy New Year Dan and best wishes for a prosperous 2021
Best
Bob B.
Thanks a lot, Bob. Very sad, indeed. At some point We need to start pushing back. You can help sharing my blogs with your network. Thanks again — and Happy New Year!
Hi Dan
Another good article and I couldn’t agree more. Happy New Year
Thanks Jim! Hope all is well, and Happy New Year!