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The recession that inspired the 2008 financial crisis feels like a lifetime ago, its subsequent expansion now more than a decade along. Since recovering from the Great Recession back in 2010 stocks have enjoyed the longest uninterrupted expansion in history, featuring boom-like returns during the slowest pace of economic growth since World War II. The QE-boom, as it should become known, was a time driven by the greatest expansion in monetary supply the world has ever witnessed. Slow growth, fast money, and bad policy are an inflationary threat capable of shaving 40% from this stock market in a time that...
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Inflation continues to pressure American consumers and business operators, and after a quick review of the numbers it looks as if it’ll only get worse before it gets better. Here are some facts… The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures pricing for a basket of goods to determine inflation. CPI has averaged 2% growth (inflation) for more than 20 years before all this Covid nonsense began in 2020. One year later, in 2021, CPI posted a stiff 5% increase in average prices – and then added another 5% so far this year (2022), just two months in. Inflation is strong –...
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The lunacy in last year’s investment markets can be epitomized by the ever growing disconnect between real economic activity and the stock market, also known as the difference between Main Street and Wall Street. In a world with little sanity and logic the stock market is a great benchmark. But for all others the bond market is the best indicator of the economic tide. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has continued to pace at just 2% growth annually, which is the economic norm since recovering from the Great Recession more than ten years ago. This time around, however, the inflation rate...
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We keep hearing the Biden administration claim that his massive spending plan is totally paid for and won’t cost a thing, something they plan to achieve with tax increases and an additional 87,000 new IRS agents – you know, to track down the “rich bad guys” who aren’t paying their “fair share.” To believe such tomfoolery is to be totally ignorant of the facts and economics at play. THE BIDEN ECONOMY demonstrated the impossibility his fiscal plan would cost nothing on the most basic of premises – that big government and their according spending programs are extremely inflationary, a cost...
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If you understand what’s going on in the world of money, economics and government policy, it’s plain to see that all of central governance is rife with corruption, riddled with erroneous information and false narrative, all of which is covered by a blanket of elitist arrogance intended to hide their incompetency and/or ill-founded motives. The Biden Administration is perhaps the most deceitful and dishonest in American history, and by far the most incompetent. In every case he appears either cognitively disabled or coherently incompetent, and definitely not up to the job. He is a puppet guided by the radical communist...
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  I was diagnosed with atrial fibrillation (afib) in early 2015. Afib is a condition where the top chamber of the heart beats at an abnormally high rate of speed while the lower beats at a normal pace. During the episode blood tends to pool in the lower chamber, increasing the risk of clots and stroke. Needless to say, afib is a serious condition. Initially doctors tried to treat my condition with medication, which were only somewhat effective. But as time wore on I began to experience increased occurrences that would last several hours at a time, one more than...
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It’s been a while since I opined on the current state of the markets and that’s because the only thing that has changed is my level of disgust with the world – especially with the news media, who echo false claims made by so called experts as if they are hard, fast, and true. Facts, science, and history mean nothing to them, hence the reason they are hell-bent on changing all three. Government sponsored propaganda is what they’re all about, and it’s not doing We the People any good. Even more unsettling is the Republican timid rebuke of the hard...
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It’s hard to believe ten years have passed since LOSE YOUR BROKER NOT YOUR MONEY first hit the streets. The book, which began as a graduate school project in the early 1990’s, demonstrates the investment process using my stock selection method and patent-pending 15-51™ allocation system. My method follows basic logic and common sense, and when applied to achieve a specific purpose, produces extraordinary results on every level. For instance, the objective of my 15-51i portfolio is to indicate stock market strength by consistently producing above-average stock market results, where the Dow Jones Industrial Average serves as the bellwether standard...
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The most popular question on everyone’s mind is not whether a major correction will ever occur but when will it actually arrive. The answer to that mystery is as predictable as it is elusive. To put it plainly, the proverbial shit will hit the fan as soon as inflation heats up to the point it pressures yields to move higher without the Fed’s consent, at which time the Wall Street establishment will wake up at the wheel doing eighty in the wrong direction. After the crash, again, experts will face the music with shocked faces and stiff upper lips having...
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The importance of employing a well-defined method of allocation cannot be oversold. It makes everything so much easier, from stock selection to decision making, to understanding how your portfolio will behave under any market condition. The reason many consider the stock market to be scary is because they have no idea what to expect from “the market” or their portfolio. Indeed, stock market activity can surprise anyone. But the behavior of your portfolio should never. For instance, because my portfolio is “market diversified” I know it will move with the same rhythm as “the market” does, and because it is...
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In the old days stock market trends were somewhat connected to the condition of the market economy and its activity. When the economy was booming stocks were rising. When the economy was in recession stocks would fall. That is no longer the case. Today there is literally no connection between the two. Stocks are at all-time highs while the Real economy remains 10% lower than it was before all this Covid nonsense began – nonsense meaning the unconstitutional lockdowns, constraints and restrictions imposed on individuals and free-market activity for something as common as a novel flu virus. Ironically Nominal GDP...
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Year-over-year inflation came in at 4.9% in the 4th quarter 2020, and Real Gross Domestic Product shrank by a significant -9.8%. Bad news indeed – but you would never know it by the way the stock market is behaving. More on that in a bit. Inflation (a.k.a. the cost of money) has no choice but to raise interest rates (a.k.a. yields) because interest rates are the cost of debt, which is just borrowed money. When the cost of money increases it is only a matter of time until the cost of debt also rises. So it should be little surprise...
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New wave trading app Robinhood is the latest example of Wall Street’s corruption and it should alarm all of us. GameStop, both victim and beneficiary of bad policy, is not an isolated instance nor is it limited to the Davey and Goliath plotline. The only way to appreciate how it affects each and every one of us is to dig deeper into what happened to GameStop’s stock (GME), why it happened, and how it was made possible. Perhaps then we can finally stop banks from operating like casinos who cater to the institutional class while screwing the rest of us....
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In any analysis of Trump it is important to recall how he actually made it into office. The biggest draw to him was that he wasn’t one of them – a career politician beholden to special interest money. That independence, along with his willingness to fight as dirty as his political rivals, were refreshing changes to the typical appeasement and punching-bag approach taken by most establishment Republicans. Trump’s first campaign featured a specific agenda that was tangible – lower taxes, repeal and replace Obamacare, constitutionally conservative judges, new and improved trade deals, defeat ISIS, and stronger border and immigration controls...
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Think of how crazy our world is today… Political turmoil has never been greater and it’s impossible not to feel disenfranchised by both political Parties. The entire government apparatus – FBI, CIA, IRS, DOJ, the court system and Federal Reserve, Cabinet Members for any administration and every new Congress – have proven to be nothing but corrupt and against the cause of Liberty. Add to those the closely connected powerbrokers – the mass media, big business and special interests, labor unions, and hostile sovereign nations – who are just as self-serving and against every facet of Americanism and the interests...
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Chapter 9: The Coming Crash (2020)

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Stock market corrections are like car accidents – they’re impossible to mitigate if you don’t see them coming. The QE balloon is bursting, thanks to a pin called Covid-19. Here’s my operational plan to capitalize on the coming crash.

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