The government reported an economic contraction of 34% in the 2nd quarter of 2020 and I’m not so sure how they came up with that. Using the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’s (BEA) raw datasets the annualized change from Q1’s $19.0 trillion economy to a $17.2 trillion economy in Q2 calculates to a contraction of...Read More
The 2nd quarter is over and the economy is still far from where it was before Trump gave the order to shelter in place. In what was promised to be a short two week quarantine in March ended up destroying the entire 2nd quarter economy – numbers are due out in a couple of weeks....Read More
The last time a major correction was unfolding right before my eyes I was four years into writing the first edition of LOSE YOUR BROKER NOT YOUR MONEY. The first several drafts contained extensive analysis that forecasted the major correction that was developing as the housing-boom approached its predictable end. And then bang, it happened....Read More
Both are pretty scary in their own right but for me it’s the virus because I’m not a doctor or virologist and only know what’s in the news – and I know how unreliable that is. But what is happening in the financial markets was bound to happen, and quite frankly, long overdue. Those who...Read More
Success is a constant pursuit, not a moment in time – especially when it comes to investment. Those looking for overnight success are gamblers, who must rely on luck to win. And that is the riskiest approach to take with investment. The least risky tactic, therefore, is one that seeks success over a long period...Read More
Investment is more of a discipline than anything else. You must have rules and boundaries – and you must honor them, or else they don’t exist. In my book I mention my rule not to invest in public equity stocks with prices less than $15. It’s a hard and fast standard, and something I just...Read More
It’s a shame that so many people still feel they can’t invest successfully on their own. They incorrectly believe that managing a portfolio is high finance and stock picking is rocket science. Those false perceptions are exacerbated by a common belief that investing demands too much time that involves constant attention and tinkering. So not...Read More
Ever since the Federal Reserve changed policy positions in late 2018 the markets have reflected the dysfunction in their rationale. Fed chairman Jerome Powell espouses that his policy decisions are “data dependent.” They look anything but. Notwithstanding the agita caused by stock and bond market volatility nothing – and I mean nothing – in the economic numbers warrant the Fed’s decision...Read More
In yet another gross display of managerial incompetence Nike gave its investors another great reason to exit the stock. Their recent decision to pull shoes featuring the first American flag from the shelves during this year’s July 4th celebration is almost as stunning as making former NFL quarterback Colin Kaepernick the face of their brand. It...Read More
GONE BABY GONE highlighted my contempt for Nike’s decision to glorify the unpatriotic action of kneeling during our national anthem with a multi-million-dollar ad campaign featuring the leader of the movement, former NFL quarterback Colin Kaepernick. That was reason enough for me to sell the stock and replace it with German competitor adidas in my 15-51i portfolio....Read More
